Using the MIP to Decide- When to Refinance
The MIP (Moore Inflation Predictor) is our proprietary index that projects future inflation rates one year into the future.
It uses a “fan” style with varying level of likelihood that certain rates will be attained. If you are considering refinancing (see When is it Right to Refinance? ) naturally you want the best rate. In order to determine the timing just look at the MIP chart.
From it you can determine when the next bottom will be occurring. Even though the MIP tracks and predicts the “Inflation” rate, interest rates tend to track fairly well with Inflation. So when the inflation rate is bottoming the interest rate should be bottoming as well. And this makes sense because Continue reading
Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008
The typical financial disclaimer reads, “the past is no predictor of the future” but learning from historical markets is definately a good thing to do. For some time now Robert Prechter has been telling us to expect a double dip with 2008 being the first wave down. Today we are going to look to Chris Ciovacco, Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management. Typically Chris is a bit more upbeat than Prechter, lets see what he has to say as he compares current market conditions to 2000 and 2008. ~ Tim McMahon, editor
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Before you read your favorite author’s work relative to the outlook for today’s markets, we invite you to go back into their article archives and see what they were saying in early 2008 and the summer of 2008. On February 13, 2008, with the S&P trading at 1,348, we published Technical Breakdowns Call For More Hedging. Unfortunately, much of our analysis from early 2008 applies to the current market, which is showing indications that a new bear market may be on the horizon. Continue reading
Solar Energy in Uzbekistan
In a wierd twist of fate, Uzbekistan is sitting on a “Gold Mine” of scientific information about solar energy which because of cheap Siberian Oil has been totally worthless… Up until now. With the world’s interest turning to Solar once again this might be an opportunity for a forward looking company to snap up years of government funded research for a “song”. In this article John Daly tells us how this anomally came about. Tim McMahon~editor
Uzbekistan’s Untapped Solar Energy Riches
By: John C.K. Daly of OilPrice.com
The 17th century English philosopher, Francis Bacon, once observed that, “knowledge is power.
So, here’s some power knowledge that the West has overlooked, but may well contain critical information for jumpstarting Western interest in solar power. Continue reading
Economy Trends Toward Greater Depression
It’s important to continue to check our economic compass and keep a constant eye on the direction our economy and the world in general are headed. This will help to determine any adjustments necessary in our portfolios and/or our entire financial outlook. In today’s article David Galland looks at the direction of the economy and whether anything has really changed over the last couple of years. Has gold peaked? Is it time to abandon inflation hedges? Is chaos still the order of the day? Where is the Eurozone headed? Washington Debt? China? Japan? The Middle-East? What are the trends telling us now?
Tim McMahon, editor
The Greater Depression Is Upon Us
By David Galland, Managing Director Casey Research
The phrase “Greater Depression” was coined by Doug Casey a decade or so back as a way of describing the economic crisis he foresaw as inevitable, and which is now materializing.
Because I think it is important for every organization to constantly challenge its own assumptions, I’ve long Continue reading
Stock Trends by Month
By Tim McMahon, editor
I read quite a few books on investing strategy every year but one that sticks in my mind is by legendary investor and trader Larry Williams called The Right Stock at the Right Time. In it he outlines the monthly and yearly trends that can provide a basis for your overall investment strategy.
The monthly trend is basically the the average of all the January gains (or losses) then all the February, then March, etc. It is amazing to see how similar each month is from year to year. Of course not every January is the same as all other Januarys but understanding which are the typically weak months and which are the strong ones can help shape your buying and selling timing.
So today when I opened my email I was surprised to find a very similar chart from the good people at Chart of the Day.
You can see that there really is a correlation because
Continue reading
Gold vs. Silver Ratio
As anyone who has read my articles for any length of time knows, I am a big fan of ratios. I find them very useful for tracking the comparative value of things especially when presented in chart form. Over the years I have tracked the Gold vs Oil ratio, Gasoline vs. Oil, and many more. Generally they are used to target underpriced sectors so you can tell which one is a better investment.
But in today’s article Nico Isaac shows us that by looking at the Gold/Silver ratio we can tell something else and that is how conservative the investing public is. Continue reading
Six Straight Weeks of Decline Take DJIA Below 12,000: What Now?
Before blaming falling stocks on the most recent weak economic reports, let’s check some dates.
As of June 10, the Dow has suffered the “longest losing streak since the fall of 2002. The market’s last seven-week stretch of losses began in May 2001, as the dot-com bubble deflated,” reports The Associated Press.
As for why stocks are falling, most observers agree: Blame “weaker hiring, industrial output, and a moribund housing market.” The economic reports from the past two weeks made that clear.
But wait a minute. The DJIA didn’t top in the past two weeks — Continue reading
New Energy Trend in Japan?
Trends in Energy–
In the wake of the massive nuclear tragedy in Japan the unthinkable has happened in a nation known for their efficiency of design. This is causing the entire nation and possibly the world to re-evaluate their energy choices. Is this a mega-shift in trends? Could this usher in a period of turning to safer alternatives?
Just this past week General Electric’s (GE) GE Energy division debuted its Electric Vehicle Solar Carport. This carport has solar panels built into its roof and can feed the electricity it produces into GE’s new Smart EV Charging Stations opening the door for Solar powered cars. Each EV Solar Carport Project produces enough energy to power nearly 20 homes per year. And is targeted toward parking lots so cars can be parked in the shade and get charged up as well. There are millions of acres of parking lots around the country just ripe for producing solar energy (and shading cars). I would think many people would pay for the priviledge of parking in the shade even if they didn’t want to charge up their car. The excess energy could be fed back into the grid supplying energy during peak usage times (daytime) or used to charge the cars parked in them.
Perhaps as Dr. Daly suggests in this article the key components of alternative energy are coming together not only with G.E. but throughout the world.
Tim McMahon, editor
The Fukushima debacle has finally bared the industry’s darkest secret, its inability to manage its nuclear waste. The six reactor TEPCO Daichi Fukushima stored all its waste onsite, and the spent fuel rods and their lack of cooling have been a major contributor to the high radiation levels observed around the facility. Worse for nuclear power proponents has been the reluctant admission by TECPO that three of the complex’s six reactors apparently did in fact suffer a meltdown. So, what’s next?
Continue reading
Long Term Economic Trends
Here at Financial Trend Forecaster we are always looking at global trends trying to project the future based on the recent past. We believe that the wise thing to do is to evaluate all the options so that we will be prepared no matter what happens. Sticking your head in the sand will not protect you from an oncoming freight train. But knowing the global trends and projecting where they might be heading will allow you to be prepared to jump out of the way at the appropriate time. Make no mistake current economic trends are an oncoming freight train. As we’ll see in a moment no twenty year period in the previous century was even remotely like the previous twenty years but the indicators were there for projecting the future economic trend… if you knew where to look.
Based on current economic trends Doug Casey has developed three possible scenarios for the long term economic trend. In the following article Doug will expound on his projections. Doug Casey has been in the trenches projecting financial trends for over thirty years now. Doug literally wrote the book on profiting from periods of economic turmoil: his book Crisis Investing was the best-selling financial book of 1980 and was #1 on the New York Times bestseller list for weeks. Doug’s next book Strategic Investing set new standards by receiving the largest advance ever paid for a financial book at the time. So let’s see what Doug is projecting now: Continue reading
Is Gold in a Bubble?
In his May True Wealthnewsletter, Steve Sjuggerud said,
At the peak of an asset bubble, prices go “parabolic.” In a bubble, the asset’s chart goes from “humming along nicely” to “straight up.” A good example is the NASDAQ back in 1999-2000. In less than six months, the NASDAQ just about doubled before it peaked in March 2000. That was the parabolic stage for the Nasdaq.
Gold is still in the “humming along nicely” phase. It hasn’t gone parabolic yet. And then he went on to give some interesting statistical and some anecdotal evidence to prove his point.
However, In the following article Patrick W. Hejlik CEO of Fourth Quadrant Asset Management presents his arguments as to why Gold is in a bubble. As many long time readers know we have been bullish on Gold for a while. Patrick is a pretty smart guy managing assets to minimize risk while maximizing profits and I respect his investment acumen so it is interesting to note that he is currently holding gold puts (i.e. he is betting gold will decline sharply). So in the interests of presenting both sides of the debate I am presenting his reasoning here. Tim McMahon, editor.
Gold is in a Bubble
By Patrick W. Hejlik
Like many Wall Street expressions, the term bubble has been so tossed about in recent years that suggesting an asset class is in a bubble is akin to the boy who cried wolf. In an effort to set the record straight, a bubble in asset prices is when speculative forces overtake the fundamental underpinnings of an asset and drive prices to levels that are unsustainable when related to those fundamentals. Based on that definition, it is our opinion gold has reached this classification.
