3 Bears for the Markets
These days there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of good news out there anymore. What with Greece, the looming recession and all the market technicals looking negative we have three big bears (at least) roaring in our faces. In todays commentary Chris Ciovacco Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management tells us how these bears are lined up and what to expect next. Tim McMahon, editor.
Greece, Recession Odds, & Technicals All Bearish
While inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, EU and European Central Bank, known as the troika, are in Athens to review the books, Reuters reported Sunday:
Greece will miss deficit targets set just months ago in a massive bailout package, sources said citing a budget draft being adopted by the cabinet on Sunday, in a setback in Europe’s efforts to stave off the country’s bankruptcy.
Two sources confirmed the new budget numbers, which predict a budget deficit of 8.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year and 6.8 percent next year, compared with targets of 7.6 percent for this year and 6.5 percent for 2012.
With Germany hinting last week the terms of the bailouts may need to be revisited, these latest developments may put more pressure on financial markets as we enter October. Back in the United States, more economists and economic forecasters are migrating to the recession camp. From the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) website (9/30/2011) :
Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”
From a technical perspective, September closed out with numerous long-term bearish signals present on weekly and monthly charts (see table below). The signals below tell us the odds favor bearish outcomes in October. Could stocks rally instead? Sure they could, but it is the lower probability outcome given the fundamental and technical backdrop. The downside potential of stocks and the euro we outlined on September 23 remains in play as we head into the typically volatile month of October.
See the full article here
Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008
The typical financial disclaimer reads, “the past is no predictor of the future” but learning from historical markets is definately a good thing to do. For some time now Robert Prechter has been telling us to expect a double dip with 2008 being the first wave down. Today we are going to look to Chris Ciovacco, Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management. Typically Chris is a bit more upbeat than Prechter, lets see what he has to say as he compares current market conditions to 2000 and 2008. ~ Tim McMahon, editor
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Before you read your favorite author’s work relative to the outlook for today’s markets, we invite you to go back into their article archives and see what they were saying in early 2008 and the summer of 2008. On February 13, 2008, with the S&P trading at 1,348, we published Technical Breakdowns Call For More Hedging. Unfortunately, much of our analysis from early 2008 applies to the current market, which is showing indications that a new bear market may be on the horizon. Continue reading
Stock Trends by Month
By Tim McMahon, editor
I read quite a few books on investing strategy every year but one that sticks in my mind is by legendary investor and trader Larry Williams called The Right Stock at the Right Time. In it he outlines the monthly and yearly trends that can provide a basis for your overall investment strategy.
The monthly trend is basically the the average of all the January gains (or losses) then all the February, then March, etc. It is amazing to see how similar each month is from year to year. Of course not every January is the same as all other Januarys but understanding which are the typically weak months and which are the strong ones can help shape your buying and selling timing.
So today when I opened my email I was surprised to find a very similar chart from the good people at Chart of the Day.
You can see that there really is a correlation because
Continue reading
Six Straight Weeks of Decline Take DJIA Below 12,000: What Now?
Before blaming falling stocks on the most recent weak economic reports, let’s check some dates.
As of June 10, the Dow has suffered the “longest losing streak since the fall of 2002. The market’s last seven-week stretch of losses began in May 2001, as the dot-com bubble deflated,” reports The Associated Press.
As for why stocks are falling, most observers agree: Blame “weaker hiring, industrial output, and a moribund housing market.” The economic reports from the past two weeks made that clear.
But wait a minute. The DJIA didn’t top in the past two weeks — Continue reading
Is Gold in a Bubble?
In his May True Wealthnewsletter, Steve Sjuggerud said,
At the peak of an asset bubble, prices go “parabolic.” In a bubble, the asset’s chart goes from “humming along nicely” to “straight up.” A good example is the NASDAQ back in 1999-2000. In less than six months, the NASDAQ just about doubled before it peaked in March 2000. That was the parabolic stage for the Nasdaq.
Gold is still in the “humming along nicely” phase. It hasn’t gone parabolic yet. And then he went on to give some interesting statistical and some anecdotal evidence to prove his point.
However, In the following article Patrick W. Hejlik CEO of Fourth Quadrant Asset Management presents his arguments as to why Gold is in a bubble. As many long time readers know we have been bullish on Gold for a while. Patrick is a pretty smart guy managing assets to minimize risk while maximizing profits and I respect his investment acumen so it is interesting to note that he is currently holding gold puts (i.e. he is betting gold will decline sharply). So in the interests of presenting both sides of the debate I am presenting his reasoning here. Tim McMahon, editor.
Gold is in a Bubble
By Patrick W. Hejlik
Like many Wall Street expressions, the term bubble has been so tossed about in recent years that suggesting an asset class is in a bubble is akin to the boy who cried wolf. In an effort to set the record straight, a bubble in asset prices is when speculative forces overtake the fundamental underpinnings of an asset and drive prices to levels that are unsustainable when related to those fundamentals. Based on that definition, it is our opinion gold has reached this classification.
Trends in the U.S. Dollar, Stocks and Gold
Today we have Chris Vermeulen “The Gold and Oil Guy” to tell us a bit about where the massive deficits will take the Dollar, Stocks and Gold. ~editor
Gold and Stocks Heading Higher with GDP Crashing
As most investors and traders are aware, the U.S. Federal government has run up significant deficits and the long term debt burden is becoming a drain on Gross Domestic Product. That being said, most economists are discussing the possibility of a major decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar going forward as inflationary monetary policy begins to strangle growth. While that view point may prove right over the long haul, in the short run most traders are not likely expecting the U.S. Dollar to rally.
The U.S. Dollar is expected to reach a multi-year cycle low in the near future. From the cyclical low, I expect the U.S. Dollar to regain a strong footing and work higher against the crowd. This is not to say that the U.S. Dollar will not eventually decline, but financial markets do not work that easily. Shorting the U.S. Dollar is a crowded trade and Mr. Market punishes crowded trades quite often by pushing prices the opposite of what the herd is expecting. Should the U.S. Dollar find a strong underlying bid, precious metals and domestic equities would feel the brunt force of such a move. While it remains to be seen if the U.S. Dollar rallies, if it does it will catch many traders and economists by surprise and the unwinding of the short dollar trade could unleash a wave of buying that we have not seen for quite some time.
Let’s take a look inside the market…
How to Trade the Holiday Grind
By Chris Vermeulen, The Gold and Oil Guy
It’s that time again when volume dries up and prices rise into the new year. A lot of individuals are scrambling to prepare for the holidays, even though we had a year to prepare. The big money has already done most of their year end shuffling and will be taking it easy until January.
The market is overbought and sentiment readings are at extreme levels which in the past have been the start of large sell offs and even bear markets. While I am keeping a close eye for a top, there is not much we can do but stay long stocks and commodities until the market tips its hand and distribution selling is in control. The U.S. federal government is the only wild card going into year end that should be on traders’ radars. They have been doing a great job boosting prices in the equities and commodities market, but can they continue to hold things up when the big money and the proverbial herd start unloading positions in 2011? Continue reading
Trade The Trend in Gold, Dollar, S&P500
Today we have an analysis by Chris Vermeulen “The Gold and Oil Guy”. Chris has some rock solid tips on trading choppy markets like we are seeing now. Picking tops can be very difficult and costly so check out Chris’ advice in the final paragraph. It’s worh its weight in Gold!~ Tim McMahon, editor
Dollar, Gold & SP500 Trend Trading
November 10th, 2010
It has been a roller coaster week thus far as stocks and precious metals plunged on heavy selling volume on the back of a rising dollar, only to make a strong rebound Wednesday. While there has been significant intraday price movement, it was no surprise to us as we have been anticipating this pullback since discussing it in my Sunday Gold Newsletter.
Let’s take a quick look at the charts…
US Dollar Daily Trading Chart
The past couple weeks the dollar has traded in a choppy fashion, and last week I mentioned to subscribers to keep any new positions small. The dollar looked ready to make a bounce and if it reverses we will see stocks and commodities correct rather sharply.
Last week we trimmed some profits on our gold and SP500 trading positions in anticipation of a rising dollar/lower equity and metals prices. The dollar is currently in a down trend so we are still trading with the trend, but the next couple sessions could potentially change that.
As you can see on the chart a similar pattern to what we saw during Continue reading
Your Chance to Learn How to Forecast Markets Using Technical Analysis
EWI’s Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy gives you practical lessons — free
September 17, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
There are two camps of market analysts out there: the fundamental camp and the technical one. Fundamental analysts look at things like the GDP, unemployment, interest rates, etc. to make logical assumptions about where the stock market is going.
Technical analysts use none of that. They look at the market’s internals to gauge the trend: things like momentum, trend channels — and yes, Elliott wave patterns.
And this is your free chance to learn how they do it. Continue reading
Will Grains Gain OR Wane?
Futures Junctures Free Week has begun
September 16, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
Over the past few months, leading grain prices have climbed up the commodity wall like a “mile-a-minute” kudzu vine. From late June to early August, the big three grain markets (wheat, corn, and soybeans) soared 40%-plus in a coordinated rally to multi-year highs before leveling off.
The question on the minds of market participants is simple: Is the grains’ uptrend set to end?
Well, according to the mainstream experts, the answer is a definite NO — and an equally definite YES. See, according to recent headlines, grain prices are as likely headed for strong gains as they are for a world of pain. On this, following news items capture the very conflicting grain complex picture:
- “Wheat futures decline, fall most in two weeks after Egypt looks elsewhere for supplies… We have a bearish tone.” (Wall Street Journal)
- “Wheat Soars Despite Reassurance On German Crop.” (AP)
- “Corn Above $5-per bushel mark; prices expected to pull back.” (Cattle Network)
- “Corn (Soybeans) Still King… the bull market is intact for now.” (Farm Forum)
- “Grain Markets Are Hot: But Is It Too Late? One money manager believes the dance will soon be coming to an end.” (Minyanville)
I rest my case.
Fortunately, there’s a quick and easy alternative to the mixed messages of the mainstream: the September 14 Daily Futures Junctures. In that publication, EWI’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy presents in depth analysis, labeled price charts, and live video commentary on all three grain markets — a total of 12 charts in all.
The best part is, you can get instant access to Daily Futures Junctures, along with its long-term sister Monthly Futures Junctures at the unbelievable discount of 100% off. This complimentary admission to one of EWI’s most exclusive subscriber resources is the benefit of Futures Junctures Service Free Week. The event runs from 5 pm (EST) on Wednesday September 15 to September 23. Sign up today and start taking advantage of this amazing opportunity.
(Near-Term Opportunities On The House: On Wednesday September 16, EWI launched its famous Futures Junctures Free Week,providing all Club EWI members with instant, no-cost access to comprehensive near-, and long-term commodity analysis. Sign up today and take advantage of this amazing offer.)
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Will Grains Gain OR Wane? Find Out For FREE. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
