_20110820213338.jpg)
What Are the BEST Technical Indicators for Successful Trading?
8 technical analysis tools that give any trader an edge
You may have seen a TV ad where “traders” describe their strategies, and one says, “I trade on fundamentals.” That sounds very reassuring — except that, on any given day, “fundamentals” are a mixed bag:
- You might have a good U.S. employment report…but bad news from Europe
- A positive Fed statement…but a negative housing number
- Strong earnings…but slowing consumer spending
And so on. Which “fundamental” factor trumps the other? Which one carries more weight in your forecast? Your guess is as good (or bad) as anybody’s.
Your alternative is technical analysis, which forecasts the markets’ short- and long-term moves based on objective metrics, not guesses. Continue reading
3 Bears for the Markets
These days there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of good news out there anymore. What with Greece, the looming recession and all the market technicals looking negative we have three big bears (at least) roaring in our faces. In todays commentary Chris Ciovacco Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management tells us how these bears are lined up and what to expect next. Tim McMahon, editor.
Greece, Recession Odds, & Technicals All Bearish
While inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, EU and European Central Bank, known as the troika, are in Athens to review the books, Reuters reported Sunday:
Greece will miss deficit targets set just months ago in a massive bailout package, sources said citing a budget draft being adopted by the cabinet on Sunday, in a setback in Europe’s efforts to stave off the country’s bankruptcy.
Two sources confirmed the new budget numbers, which predict a budget deficit of 8.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year and 6.8 percent next year, compared with targets of 7.6 percent for this year and 6.5 percent for 2012.
With Germany hinting last week the terms of the bailouts may need to be revisited, these latest developments may put more pressure on financial markets as we enter October. Back in the United States, more economists and economic forecasters are migrating to the recession camp. From the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) website (9/30/2011) :
Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”
From a technical perspective, September closed out with numerous long-term bearish signals present on weekly and monthly charts (see table below). The signals below tell us the odds favor bearish outcomes in October. Could stocks rally instead? Sure they could, but it is the lower probability outcome given the fundamental and technical backdrop. The downside potential of stocks and the euro we outlined on September 23 remains in play as we head into the typically volatile month of October.
See the full article here
Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008
The typical financial disclaimer reads, “the past is no predictor of the future” but learning from historical markets is definately a good thing to do. For some time now Robert Prechter has been telling us to expect a double dip with 2008 being the first wave down. Today we are going to look to Chris Ciovacco, Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management. Typically Chris is a bit more upbeat than Prechter, lets see what he has to say as he compares current market conditions to 2000 and 2008. ~ Tim McMahon, editor
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Before you read your favorite author’s work relative to the outlook for today’s markets, we invite you to go back into their article archives and see what they were saying in early 2008 and the summer of 2008. On February 13, 2008, with the S&P trading at 1,348, we published Technical Breakdowns Call For More Hedging. Unfortunately, much of our analysis from early 2008 applies to the current market, which is showing indications that a new bear market may be on the horizon. Continue reading
Head and Shoulders Stock Market Pattern: Still Valid?
A Multi-Year Technical Analysis Pattern “Bears” Watching
By Robert Jay
description of its three main components:Your Chance to Learn How to Forecast Markets Using Technical Analysis
EWI’s Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy gives you practical lessons — free
September 17, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
There are two camps of market analysts out there: the fundamental camp and the technical one. Fundamental analysts look at things like the GDP, unemployment, interest rates, etc. to make logical assumptions about where the stock market is going.
Technical analysts use none of that. They look at the market’s internals to gauge the trend: things like momentum, trend channels — and yes, Elliott wave patterns.
And this is your free chance to learn how they do it. Continue reading
Will Grains Gain OR Wane?
Futures Junctures Free Week has begun
September 16, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
Over the past few months, leading grain prices have climbed up the commodity wall like a “mile-a-minute” kudzu vine. From late June to early August, the big three grain markets (wheat, corn, and soybeans) soared 40%-plus in a coordinated rally to multi-year highs before leveling off.
The question on the minds of market participants is simple: Is the grains’ uptrend set to end?
Well, according to the mainstream experts, the answer is a definite NO — and an equally definite YES. See, according to recent headlines, grain prices are as likely headed for strong gains as they are for a world of pain. On this, following news items capture the very conflicting grain complex picture:
- “Wheat futures decline, fall most in two weeks after Egypt looks elsewhere for supplies… We have a bearish tone.” (Wall Street Journal)
- “Wheat Soars Despite Reassurance On German Crop.” (AP)
- “Corn Above $5-per bushel mark; prices expected to pull back.” (Cattle Network)
- “Corn (Soybeans) Still King… the bull market is intact for now.” (Farm Forum)
- “Grain Markets Are Hot: But Is It Too Late? One money manager believes the dance will soon be coming to an end.” (Minyanville)
I rest my case.
Fortunately, there’s a quick and easy alternative to the mixed messages of the mainstream: the September 14 Daily Futures Junctures. In that publication, EWI’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy presents in depth analysis, labeled price charts, and live video commentary on all three grain markets — a total of 12 charts in all.
The best part is, you can get instant access to Daily Futures Junctures, along with its long-term sister Monthly Futures Junctures at the unbelievable discount of 100% off. This complimentary admission to one of EWI’s most exclusive subscriber resources is the benefit of Futures Junctures Service Free Week. The event runs from 5 pm (EST) on Wednesday September 15 to September 23. Sign up today and start taking advantage of this amazing opportunity.
(Near-Term Opportunities On The House: On Wednesday September 16, EWI launched its famous Futures Junctures Free Week,providing all Club EWI members with instant, no-cost access to comprehensive near-, and long-term commodity analysis. Sign up today and take advantage of this amazing offer.)
———-
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Will Grains Gain OR Wane? Find Out For FREE. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?
By Elliott Wave International
Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis.
Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support — a level where buyers reside.
If the price falls below a moving average line and “can’t” break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance — a price level where sellers hover.
That’s an easy explanation of moving averages for you.
