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3 Bears for the Markets
These days there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of good news out there anymore. What with Greece, the looming recession and all the market technicals looking negative we have three big bears (at least) roaring in our faces. In todays commentary Chris Ciovacco Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management tells us how these bears are lined up and what to expect next. Tim McMahon, editor.
Greece, Recession Odds, & Technicals All Bearish
While inspectors from the International Monetary Fund, EU and European Central Bank, known as the troika, are in Athens to review the books, Reuters reported Sunday:
Greece will miss deficit targets set just months ago in a massive bailout package, sources said citing a budget draft being adopted by the cabinet on Sunday, in a setback in Europe’s efforts to stave off the country’s bankruptcy.
Two sources confirmed the new budget numbers, which predict a budget deficit of 8.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for this year and 6.8 percent next year, compared with targets of 7.6 percent for this year and 6.5 percent for 2012.
With Germany hinting last week the terms of the bailouts may need to be revisited, these latest developments may put more pressure on financial markets as we enter October. Back in the United States, more economists and economic forecasters are migrating to the recession camp. From the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) website (9/30/2011) :
Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off. ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down – before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake – to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”
From a technical perspective, September closed out with numerous long-term bearish signals present on weekly and monthly charts (see table below). The signals below tell us the odds favor bearish outcomes in October. Could stocks rally instead? Sure they could, but it is the lower probability outcome given the fundamental and technical backdrop. The downside potential of stocks and the euro we outlined on September 23 remains in play as we head into the typically volatile month of October.
See the full article here
Six Straight Weeks of Decline Take DJIA Below 12,000: What Now?
Before blaming falling stocks on the most recent weak economic reports, let’s check some dates.
As of June 10, the Dow has suffered the “longest losing streak since the fall of 2002. The market’s last seven-week stretch of losses began in May 2001, as the dot-com bubble deflated,” reports The Associated Press.
As for why stocks are falling, most observers agree: Blame “weaker hiring, industrial output, and a moribund housing market.” The economic reports from the past two weeks made that clear.
But wait a minute. The DJIA didn’t top in the past two weeks — Continue reading
How to Preserve Your Capital in a Depression
In this article Doug Casey presents the case that we are in the early stages of an inflationary depression, commodities are soaring and next will be retail prices. In an inflationary depression financial assets aren’t worth the paper they are printed on and currently they are precious few bargains available in paper assets anyway. So what can you do to protect yourself? In this excellent analysis Doug shows what we can do now… before it’s too late. Tim McMahon, editor
Keeping Capital in a Depression
By Doug Casey, The Casey Report
Nothing is cheap in today’s investment world. Because of the trillions of currency units that governments all over the world have created – and are continuing to create – financial assets are grossly overpriced. Stocks, bonds, property, commodities and cash are no bargains. Meanwhile, real wages are slipping rapidly among those who are working, and a large portion of the population is unemployed or underemployed.
The next chapter in this sad drama will include a rapid rise in consumer prices. At the beginning of this year, we saw the grains – wheat, corn, soybeans and oats – go up an average of 36% within one month. In the same time frame, hogs were up 30.7%. Copper was up 29.1%. Oil was up 14%. Cotton was up 118%. Raw commodities are the first things to move in an inflationary boom, largely because they’re essential to everything. Retail prices are generally the last to move, partly because Continue reading
Stocks Setting up for Big Slide
By Tim McMahon, editor
Historically whenever the 10-year Treasury yield drops 1.2% over a short period of time a bear market for stocks resulted within two months . This signal presaged steep market crashes in 1990, 2000, and 2007.
The Treasury yield signal is now flashing a major warning. On April 5th, 2010 the 10-year Treasury bond was yielding 4.01% and is currently yielding only 2.79%. So over four months the T-bond yield has fallen 1.22%. By this signal we can expect a 20% drop in the stock market over the next two months and it is possible that the beginning of that drop has begun today with a 2.5% drop. Continue reading
What Is a Double Dip Recession and Will We Have One?
Investing For The Rest Of Us: What Exactly Is a Double Dip Recession and What Are The Odds Of Having One?
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geitner thinks that the United States will not experience one, President Obama warned way back in November of 2009 that we could head into one, and some economic pundits believe we’re already in one. Everyone seems to have their opinion as to whether our fragile economy will experience a “double dip” recession or not.
Opinions are good. They form the basis for most discussions taking place today – from economics, to politics, and beyond. For those of us who make our livelihood giving financial advice, a well formulated opinion may well determine whether we can pay our mortgages or not.
First, let’s define a double-dip recession. In simple terms – and according to the website Investopedia, a double dip recession occurs when gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession. Got all that? Continue reading
Which Investment is Best During a Recession
In this article Susan Walker explores a question we have touched on before… conventional wisdom and hedging against bad times like inflation and recession. Editor
Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recessions?
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
Each year, the NCAA college basketball tournament winnows its starting field of 64 teams to the Final Four teams who play for a chance to become the national champion. Congratulations to the University of Kansas and the University of Tennessee, this year’s men’s and women’s basketball champions.
The structure of the NCAA tournament got me to thinking. Wouldn’t it be great if we could set up brackets for our own investments the same way – start with 64 equities, bonds, mutual funds, commodity futures, metals, etc. Then let them duke it out against one another to see which ones emerge as the “Investment Final Four”? Continue reading
Can the Feds Lie Their Way Out of a Depression?
By Rusty McDougal
You know they are trying to accomplish this ignominious feat. The goal is to keep Americans in an economic stupor. It is working.
Lies and deceit are pervasive. Newspapers, magazines, TV broadcasts, economic analysis and official prognostications are all based on shady statistics. Junk in… junk out. Continue reading
Saving the Banks will Accomplish – Nothing
Editor’s Note: The old saying is that during a deflation cash is king. This is because as prices fall money becomes more valuable (i.e. it buys more). So it makes sense to hold onto it as long as possible and wait for it to increase in value. Because people hold onto their money it becomes scarce and harder to come by.
During a deflationary recession people also hold onto their money because they are uncertain about the continued supply of money (will they lose their job due to the recession, etc) so they in addition to holding money for appreciation, they are also “saving for a rainy day”.
Conversely during inflationary times money is becoming less valuable (buys less over time) so people want to get rid of it before it loses too much purchasing power and they even borrow as much as possible so they can pay it back with less valuable dollars. Keep that in mind as you read Andy Gordon’s excellent article on why bailing out the banks won’t help the economy. ~ Tim McMahon, editor Continue reading
Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recessions?
Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recessions?
By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
Each year, the NCAA college basketball tournament winnows its starting field of 64 teams to the Final Four teams who play for a chance to become the national champion. Congratulations to the University of Kansas and the University of Tennessee, this year’s men’s and women’s basketball champions.
The structure of the NCAA tournament got me to thinking. Wouldn’t it be great if we could set up brackets for our own investments the same way – start with 64 equities, bonds, mutual funds, commodity futures, metals, etc. Then let them duke it out against one another to see which ones emerge as the “Investment Final Four”? Continue reading
An Investment Lesson from Deflation Scares
On November 6, 2002, The Wall Street Journal, in a front-page article entitled “Inside the FED, Deflation draws a closer look”, stated that the FED was discussing the possibility of deflation at a country inn in Woodstock, VT. It said “central bank officials” attended this ominous-sounding meeting.
But wait, when was this meeting? A careful reading of the article reveals that the meeting happened in 1999! This is news? A meeting three years ago is now making headlines? What gives?
Why would the WSJ publish it now? Why not 3 years ago? The answer is simple and once you understand the ““why” of it you will become a much wiser investor.
The why is simple… front page headlines sell papers. Continue reading
