Is Gold Still the Answer for Investors?
By Bud Conrad, Casey Research
Though late to the party as usual, the proverbial man on the street – along with members of mainstream media and Wall Street heavyweights – is finally waking up to the decade-long, 700% increase in the price of gold, joining a growing buzz around the monetary metal. From questions whether gold is in a bubble to predictions that soaring prices are just around the corner, one thing is clear: a new phase of awareness for gold is upon us. How far might it move before these troubling times are over?
The Big-Picture Economic Environment
Kicking things off, I would like to explore several themes in order to put the current economic situation in context. Continue reading
The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012. A Free Report from EWI
Elliott Wave International has just released a free report that will help you navigate the year ahead. You’ll get all of the indicators that they have been analyzing over the past year, with 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary. As volatile as the markets have been and will likely continue to be, you owe it to yourself and your portfolio to download this free report.
Download “The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012″ Now. (It’s FREE, but only until November 30.) Continue reading
Economic Insights from a Lord of Finance
By David Galland, The Casey Report
Of all the social memes related to the economic and investment landscape, none is more dominant than that there is a small cadre of powerful Wall Street money men who, working behind the scenes, effectively control investment markets, the global economy and the politicians that play such a big role in that economy.
Whether you call them fat cats, greedy bankers, soulless manipulators or unindicted co-conspirators, the one sure thing, in the minds of most, is that they wield the power behind all thrones and that it is their whispered agreements, invariably made in darkened rooms full of cigar smoke, that decide the economic fates of us all.
Over the years, I have met quite a few of these “Lords of Finance” and found them to possess the same wide range of traits, positive and negative, shared by all humans: fear, insecurities, self-delusion, high hopes, good intentions, social aspirations, good habits and bad. Continue reading
Market Parallels to 2000 and 2008
The typical financial disclaimer reads, “the past is no predictor of the future” but learning from historical markets is definately a good thing to do. For some time now Robert Prechter has been telling us to expect a double dip with 2008 being the first wave down. Today we are going to look to Chris Ciovacco, Chief Investment Officer of Ciovacco Capital Management. Typically Chris is a bit more upbeat than Prechter, lets see what he has to say as he compares current market conditions to 2000 and 2008. ~ Tim McMahon, editor
Parallels To 2000 And 2008 Should Not Be Ignored
Before you read your favorite author’s work relative to the outlook for today’s markets, we invite you to go back into their article archives and see what they were saying in early 2008 and the summer of 2008. On February 13, 2008, with the S&P trading at 1,348, we published Technical Breakdowns Call For More Hedging. Unfortunately, much of our analysis from early 2008 applies to the current market, which is showing indications that a new bear market may be on the horizon. Continue reading
The Nature of Rallies that Follow Massive Bear Markets
By Tim McMahon, editor
Typically the best time to buy is when everyone else is selling. This one motto has made Warren Buffett a billionaire. He’s said,
Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it…
We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. Warren Buffett
So in October 2008, when things looked their worst he invested $3 billion in General Electric (NYSE-GE). Four months later the market began to recover. Buffett has always been a long term optimist but he is also a realist.
It’s never paid to bet against America. We come through things, but its not always a smooth ride.
Warren Buffett
Since the creation of the Dow index there have only been three “Massive” corrections, where “Massive” is defined as a decline of more than 50%. Two of them happened at the beginning and end of the great depression. The third one began in 2007 and bottomed in 2009 and we are in the process of recovering from it. The only other comparable market decline was the Nasdaq “Dot Com bubble” that burst in 2000 resulting in a 78% decline in the NASDAQ with the associated post crash rally beginning in 2002.
So the following chart from our friends at Chart of the Day compares the four rallies that followed the four massive declines, i.e. the current 2009 rally, the 2002 NASDAQ rally, the 1942 Dow rally and the 1932 Dow rally.
Stock Trends by Month
By Tim McMahon, editor
I read quite a few books on investing strategy every year but one that sticks in my mind is by legendary investor and trader Larry Williams called The Right Stock at the Right Time. In it he outlines the monthly and yearly trends that can provide a basis for your overall investment strategy.
The monthly trend is basically the the average of all the January gains (or losses) then all the February, then March, etc. It is amazing to see how similar each month is from year to year. Of course not every January is the same as all other Januarys but understanding which are the typically weak months and which are the strong ones can help shape your buying and selling timing.
So today when I opened my email I was surprised to find a very similar chart from the good people at Chart of the Day.
You can see that there really is a correlation because
Continue reading
Gold vs. Silver Ratio
As anyone who has read my articles for any length of time knows, I am a big fan of ratios. I find them very useful for tracking the comparative value of things especially when presented in chart form. Over the years I have tracked the Gold vs Oil ratio, Gasoline vs. Oil, and many more. Generally they are used to target underpriced sectors so you can tell which one is a better investment.
But in today’s article Nico Isaac shows us that by looking at the Gold/Silver ratio we can tell something else and that is how conservative the investing public is. Continue reading
Are We Running Out of Silver?
(Excerpt from the Casey Research 2011 Silver Investing Guide)
Silver has been on fire over the last three years — substantially outperforming its spotlight-grabbing cousin, gold.
Because we believe this bull run is far from over, we advise investors to always maintain exposure to the precious metals markets. Even if you haven’t yet participated in the run-up of both gold and silver, I’m glad you’re ready to take a look at the investment potential of silver.
The question every investor faces in a bull market is: Do I buy now, anticipating prices will continue higher — and chance getting clobbered if a correction arrives? Or do I wait for a pullback and possibly miss out on big gains? There’s risk either way.
Our goal in this report is to suggest various ways you can invest in silver, while underscoring the importance of patience and discipline. Investors must remain patient to avoid chasing silver, overpaying, and draining their cash. Instead, we recommend that you use temporary price declines to steadily accumulate the best silver stocks and your preferred form of bullion. Continue reading
Test Your Knowledge of Silver
Silver is a hot topic these days even with the recent sell-off. So how much do you know about the metal and its underlying fundamentals? What caused its price increase? Mine production? Household use? Government holdings?
In this article Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst for Casey Research and Big Gold, “the best precious metals newsletter for the prudent investor” tests your knowledge of silver.
Can You Pass the 2011 Silver Quiz?
CPM Group recently released their 2011 Silver Yearbook, one of the industry’s most comprehensive sources of information on the silver market. Though mostly a reference book, I uncovered some interesting facts that paint a decidedly bullish picture for the metal going forward.
If you’re a silver investor, or are concerned about the recent selloff, you may find the following data very compelling. It provides an inside track on the market and will certainly make us all more knowledgeable investors.
For fun, I put what I read into the form of a quiz. See how many you can get correct… Continue reading
Government Eliminating Freedom Left and Right
This week two major court cases chipped away at our 4th amendment rights one by the Indiana courts and another by the U.S. Supreme court. Pretty soon they might as well just cross out the 4th amendment because it will be totally meaningless. In the Indiana case the court ruled that it is against the law to resist officers trying to enter your residence even if they don’t have a warrant and are entering illegally. In the Supreme Court Case they ruled that officers could enter a house without a warrant and subsequently arrest the occupants if they heard noises that made them assume that evidence was being destroyed.
In the following article David Galand addresses the herd mentality and why we as freedom loving Americans are putting up with this, how it affects our investments and what we can do about it. Tim McMahon, editor. Continue reading
