America’s Oil Supply: The Keystone for Survival
by Marin Katusa, Casey Energy Report
A rancorous debate over TransCanada Corp.’s (T.TRP) proposed Keystone XL Pipeline has given rise to two uncomfortable prospects: If the US$7 billion project is not built, Alberta’s oil sands will become landlocked, at least for a while, and the United States will lose access to one of its few reliable, friendly sources of oil.
Keystone XL is a proposed pipeline that would run from Edmonton—the hub of Canada’s massive oil sands—through Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, to Houston. The line is critical to ensure a continued, smooth ramp-up in oil sands production, because producers need to send the heavy bitumen extracted from the sands to refineries able to handle that kind of crude. Since refineries in the Midwest are reaching their heavy-oil capacity, it needs to go to the Gulf Coast.
Keystone XL is also critical for U.S. oil security – the U.S. is the world’s biggest importer of oil and, as we recently outlined in the Casey Energy Report, almost half of its oil comes from unstable, unfriendly, or declining producers (think Nigeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and the like). Canadian oil sands may be an environmental controversy, but in terms of U.S. energy security they are a lone bright spot. Denying Keystone XL equates to denying the U.S. its only significant friendly, stable, and growing source of oil.
The pipelines that currently carry bitumen from the oil sands to refineries in the Midwest will reach maximum capacity in as little as four years. At that point, oil sands producers would be stuck with growing volumes of oil and waiting for other transportation options to materialize. Those options would take several years to develop, even if efforts begin now. Continue reading
Forgotten Treasure: Unconventional Oil in the Middle East
As the conventional and cheap oil and gas start to dry up in the Middle East… a bigger, even better opportunity seeks to replace it.
For many who aren’t familiar with the region, the Middle East comes across as an updated version of Lawrence’s Arabia, only with lots of oil. But this mosaic of cultures isn’t made up of only Arabs or Muslims, and most Middle East countries are neither awash with heavily armed, rather excitable citizenry… nor with black gold, which is what we’re interested in. Twenty-three countries comprise the Arab League, but only Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iran are major oil producers.
No matter; with the exception of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, none of the oil heavies are currently open to us investors anyway. We’re digging for other finds, with three basic criteria. We’re looking for countries in the Middle East that: Continue reading
3 Smart Indicators To Trade Crude Oil With Synergism
Now that we have “Silly Season” behind us, it’s time to get serious about trading
In today’s video we are looking at crude oil. This market has been a disappointment to a lot of traders as has remained in a broad trading range for the past 18 months.
The current trading range will eventually be broken and the market will move in the direction of the breakout. While our long-term indicator, the monthly “Trade Triangle” continues to be positive, short-term “Trade Triangles” are indicating weakness. With a score of -60 for February crude oil, we expect that this market will be range bound in the short term.
One of the indicators we discussed in an earlier video is in an oversold condition, indicating a potential rally from current levels could be at hand. That being said we would wait for some other combination of indicators to confirm that a move is underway. Continue reading
What’s Ahead in the Crude Oil Market
There’s no question about it, 2010 has been pretty difficult for most traders in the crude oil market. This year has produced no discernible, lasting trends in this market. The trends it has produced have lasted little more than just 3 or 4 weeks at best.
So what’s ahead for this market?
In today’s short video we examine the fact that crude oil briefly traded over $90 a barrel before falling back. So what made the crude oil market reverse course and fall back? Was it selling, was it profit taking, a technical point, or something else?We are examining crude oil in detail using a tool that we think is very appropriate for this type of market at the moment.
We have not discussed this technical indicator in any of our previous videos and I think when you see how it works and how you can use it your own trading, you will be pretty impressed. Continue reading
Oil’s Out – Find Out What’s In
The International Energy Association (IEA) has spoken. What the world needs now is a clean energy technology revolution.
June saw the 2010 launch of IEA’s biannual report, Energy Technology Perspectives. Speaking at the launch was Nobuo Tanaka, executive director for IEA. The Gulf oil spill, he said, could prove to be a tipping point in the world’s energy consumption habits. He added that the disaster serves as a tragic reminder that our current path is not sustainable.
As far as the IEA is concerned, this is probably a very important moment to start looking at alternative energy sources. If we, as a collective group of consumers, continue on the business-as-usual path, the scenario for 2050 is looking grim. Continue reading
Florida – Much Worse Problems Than the Oil Spill
By Doug Hornig, Senior Editor, Casey Research
Media coverage of the oil spill’s effect on the Gulf focusing on tourist income lost by the waterfront towns – with footage of empty beaches, restaurants and T-shirt shops – dominates the news. Interviews with devastated business owners are heart rending. But they always end with references to somehow hanging on until “things get back to normal.”
Trouble is, things are not going to “normalize.” Not for the Panhandle of Florida, and probably not for the rest of the state, either.
Projections suggest that Florida can expect oil all along its west coast, and possibly throughout the Keys and up the east coast as well. Yet even before BP’s well began spewing crude, pressures within the state’s economy were building. It was an explosive situation awaiting a match.
Gulf Spill: Obama’s Waterloo?
By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Strategist, Casey’s Energy Report
The White House might be gaping in shock that the U.S. federal court overturned the six-month drilling moratorium, but it really isn’t all that surprising. Amid the finger pointing and political posturing, the Obama administration seems to have missed a vital detail – the U.S. oil industry is in a spot of bother.
It’s not just America’s oil supply and energy security that’s in danger after the BP oil spill and the subsequent drilling ban. The Gulf economy is hanging by a thread, and it won’t take much to send it over the edge. Continue reading
The Hungry Dragon: China’s New Oil Market
By Marin Katusa, Chief Investment Strategist, Energy Division
If you ever happen to eavesdrop on a conversation between energy investors, two words are sure to crop up – China and oil. Usually, they’re used together and usually, it’s about China’s increasing presence on the global oil scene.
It’s a pretty safe bet that, as one of the world’s fastest growing economies, China needs a lot of energy. And with an oil appetite that grows by 7.5% each year, seven times faster than the U.S., the country’s reserves don’t even begin to compare to the consumption.
But fuelling the blistering pace of its economy is China’s number one priority, and it is on a mission to lock down its energy interests all around the world. The emerging powerhouse has often felt that it was the last one onto the energy playing field with a lot of catching up to do.
Cheap Oil is Gone, and That’s Good News
By Marin Katusa, Senior Energy Strategist, Casey’s Energy Report
Over the next year or two, you will likely find yourself paying a LOT more at the gas pump. Big changes are taking place in the oil industry. With increased global demand and declining supply, easy oil is not so easy anymore.
Everything is about to get more expensive. From gasoline to anti-freeze, life jackets to golf balls, and eye glasses to fertilizer. There are very few things in the modern world that aren’t made from oil, made by machines dependant on oil, or shipped by vehicles powered by oil. Continue reading
Washington Capitulates: Peak Oil Is Real
Editor’s Note: Over the last few years, news of world renowned geologist M. King Hubbert’s theory of peak oil theory has circulated widely. Most have now heard his theory which in a nutshell says, global production of Oil and Natural Gas will decline due to increased difficulty in getting to the Global reserves of these fossil fuels. Many have studied the peak oil phenomenon, trying to confirm (or deny) Hubbert’s timing of the peak. Oil companies and International Energy Agencies have both confirmed and denied the case for “Peak Oil” over the years. But current information from the Energy Information Administration sheds new light on the subject as Doug Hornig of Casey’s Energy Opportunities shows us in this article.
Washington Capitulates: Peak Oil Is Real
By Doug Hornig, Editor, Casey’s Energy Opportunities
Each year, generally in May, the Energy Information Administration publishes a less-than-eagerly-anticipated tome called the International Energy Outlook, 250+ pages of mind-numbing text, charts, graphs, and tables.
No one reads it. The mainstream media ignores it.
It’s the product of the best prognosticators in the Department of Energy. Okay, that may be what puts most people off. But if you’re patient enough to dig into it, it will cough up some fascinating nuggets of information.
The present edition is no exception. The report refrains from spelling out the peak oil conclusion that seems most obvious from its data. However, confirming a trend begun just last year, the 2009 edition clearly reveals that the government has been forced to admit that Peak Oil is coming. Moreover, it’s expected to arrive much faster than was believed as recently as two years ago. Continue reading
