The Light Bulb Moment for the Eurozone
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EWI’s free EU debt report sheds some light on what’s in store
How many European bankers does it take to change a light bulb? That’s a joke in search of an answer, but EWI’s European analyst Brian Whitmer explained five months ago that the “light bulb moment” was coming — that’s the time when most people would clearly recognize the severity of the European debt crisis. He offered this spot-on analysis back in July 2011, before the larger world came to know recently how bad things really are in the eurozone.
This chart shows how markets in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have behaved over the past five years, including the bailouts. Whitmer says that the turmoil in Greece is due mostly to both social mood and Greek markets having plummeted for more than a year and a half, while the larger EU stock markets have levitated. Once they turn down, he forecasts that what you saw in Greece will be replayed in the eurozone. Continue reading
How to Invest for Safety
Safety First – What 25 Years in the Markets Have Taught Me
When things get really bad in the market, I like to look back at the almost 19 years I have spent carving a living out of it. It helps me ignore the panic.
There was a time when people talked about something other than the stock market. The market was considered taboo for most. Too risky. Too foreign. The generation of the Great Depression put their money in the bank. Some still kept it in cans buried under the front porch.
In the early eighties something totally new appeared on the investing horizon: the IRA. Life has never been the same.
It seems impossible that they have been around for less than 25 years. But, there was a time when people didn’t invest in mutual funds, stocks or options. IRA’s changed all that. Continue reading
Major Disaster Developing For Bond Holders
Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen 7% in value since November 1 and municipal bonds have fallen 6%. “Safe” investments like Treasury’s and Munis are not supposed to crash they are the mainstay of widows and orphans. So What’s happening?
For most of the last century, the whole world has believed the obligations of the U.S. government – and the obligations of thousands of states, cities, towns, and other municipalities in the U.S. – were the safest investments in the world. These “safe” investments aren’t supposed to crash. The following article by Elliottwave Internations shows why Bonds are no longer safe. Tim McMahon~ editor
Why Bonds Do Not Provide Shelter From The Storm
December 23, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
TREASURIES — the very name conveys a thing that is secure, protected, and will appreciate over time. Otherwise, it’d be called something like “TRASHeries” or “Mattress Stuffers.” Then, there’s the official seal of the US Department of Treasury: its image of a scale and a key symbolize “balance” and “trust.”
And, finally, there’s the mainstream economic experts who have it on good authority that long-term bonds increase in value during financial instability and uncertainty.
On this, the following news items from November-December 2010 reflect the enduring faith in fixed-income assets as the ultimate safe-havens:
- “Bonds Tumble On Signs of Economic Recovery” (Reuters)
- “US Treasury Prices Rise as traders positioned for negative headlines….” (Associated Press)
- “Treasury’s rise as investors sought shelter in safe haven assets amid rising fears about sovereign debt woes in the eurozone. The slow motion train wreck is likely to play out over year end as each country plays musical chairs with solvency. The market’s concern here is ‘What is next?’ The 10-year Treasury yield will fall if the problems get worse from here.” (Wall Street Journal)
There’s just one problem with this notion: namely, bonds (of any denomination) do NOT have a built-in disaster premium. This is the myth-busting revelation of the latest, free report from Elliott Wave International. The resource titled “The Next Major Disaster Developing For Bond Holders” includes a thoughtful selection of various EWI publications that expose the very real vulnerability of bond markets to economic downturns.
The premier study on the subject comes from Chapter 15 of EWI President Robert Prechter’s book Conquer The Crash by way of this memorable excerpt:
“If there is one bit of conventional wisdom that we hear repeatedly with respect to investing, it is that long-term bonds are the best possible investment [in downturns]. This assertion is wrong. Any bond issued by a borrower who can’t pay goes to zero in a depression. Understand that in a [major contraction], no one knows its depth and almost everyone becomes afraid. That makes investors sell bonds of any issuers that they fear could default. Even when people trust the bonds they own, they are sometimes forced to sell them to raise cash to live on. For this reason, even the safest bonds can go down, at least temporarily, as AAA bonds did in 1931 and 1932.
The first chart (see below) shows what happened to bonds of various grades in the deflationary crash. And the second chart (see below) shows what happened to the Dow Jones 40-bond average, which lost 30% of its value in four years. Observe that the collapse of the early 1930s brought these bonds’ prices below — and their interest rates above — where they were in 1920 near the peak in the intense inflation of the ‘Teens.”
That’s just the tip of the iceberg in this myth-busting report.
“The Next Major Disaster” uncovers flaws in other widely-accepted bond lore as well.
Get your free Copy of the full 10-page report Here.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Long-Term Bonds: The Best Possible Investment? Think Again. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Are “High Yield Bonds” the Next to Go Up in Flames?
How a “Dull” Investment Can Be a Great Investment
…until it isn’t any more. An important story for today’s bond investors.
I spent my childhood discussing the stock market at the dinner table. My dad was a stock broker, and he loved to “tell the story” of the stocks he recommended to customers — a story that included critical information about the industry, the products, earnings, and the outlook for the future. Most children might find it dull, but I was mesmerized.
As I got older and talked with friends about investing, I’d light up when the topic was stocks. Who in the world couldn’t get excited about analyzing companies to decide which ones could make you money! When the conversation turned to bonds, however, I would shut down. Bonds? How dull; how utterly boring. There’s no story to tell, no industry trends to follow. I saw bonds as an interest check every six months, then a return of principal when they mature. BORING. Continue reading
Moving into Bonds: From Frying Pan to Fire
By David Galland and Kevin Brekke, Casey Research
The other day, I came across an article that said, while individuals may be moving their money out of equities, they have been moving into bond funds – and in a big way.
It’s called jumping from the frying fan into the fire.
Based on my experience as a co-founder of a mutual fund group, I can tell you that if there is one sure thing in this world, it’s that when investors rush en masse into an investment category, it is invariably at almost exactly the wrong time to do so. Is that the case with today’s rush into bonds?
To shed some light on that point, Casey Research Switzerland-based editor Kevin Brekke volunteered to look into the correlation between bond flows and performance. Here’s his report… Continue reading
Stocks and Commodities Stronger than Bonds
The Long-Term Case for Stocks and Commodities
By Chris Ciovacco
In their understandably concerned state of mind in the present day, investors may have lost sight of the longer-term drivers of asset prices. Bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries, have merit presently as high levels of debt have sparked concerns about deflation. However, in the long-run, the case for stocks, commodities, commodity-related currencies, and precious metals looks quite a bit stronger than the case for bonds.
In the current 24-hour news cycle, we have three separate stories that are significantly intertwined and related to this topic:
- According to the Washington Post, the Obama administration opened its conference on the future of housing policy yesterday with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner promising both an overhaul of Fannie and Freddie and a continued federal role in backstopping mortgages
- James Bullard of the St Louis Fed told The Wall Street Journal the Federal Reserve might need to commence a program of moderate purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds if inflation continues to fall.
- In the Great American Bond Bubble (WSJ), Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz, compare the current state of the U.S. Treasury market to the tech bubble of the late 1990s.
The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds is questionable at best, yet investors continue to Continue reading
